From Steve Bass, computer expert extraordinaire: "Go into any Starbucks, tell them you voted, and they'll give you a free cup of java. Just make sure you voted, eh?" Here is the direct link to the actual Starbucks offer: http://snipurl.com/5375u
Related rumor (heard on NPR radio): patriotic doughnuts free at KRISPY KREME if you vote.
Third offer we heard of, and posted days ago: show your "I Voted" sticker at Ben and Jerry's from 5 pm to 8 pm today, get free ice cream.
The fourth yummy for your tummy: go to any of the three LA-area locations of Pitfire Pizza from 11 am to 9 pm today wearing your "I Voted" sticker and receive your choice of either a bottle of limited edition "Obama/McCain" themed Jones Soda or a bottle of Edison Ale (the ale is for ages 21 and up, available at N. Hollywood and Downtown locations only). Pitfire's 3 locations: North Hollywood (5211 Lankershim Blvd), Downtown (108 W 2nd St # 108) and Westwood (2018 Westwood Blvd).
Of course, the best reason of all to VOTE is the free satisfaction of being part of our democracy and being part of history.
Showing posts with label voting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label voting. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
GUEST ANALYSIS: Last Minute Presidential Election Summary 2008
by Doug Everett, Host of the Weekly Show "Radio Parallax" www.radioparallax.com
Tuesday's vote is expected to deliver all states carried by Kerry to Obama. At 270towin.com one can click on the '04 map as a reminder. Kerry got 252 votes – 18 short of the needed 270.
Iowa (7) - which went for Gore in '00 - is a SURE BET for Obama, leaving him just 11 votes short.
ANY combo of the following that totals 11 or more makes Obama victorious:
Ohio (20), Florida (27), Virgina (13), North Carolina (15), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5), North Dakota (3), Montana (3).
The most recent polls in "swing" states have the following differentials (Obama up equals a + number):
Indiana – 2 to -1%
Virginia + 7 to 8%
Florida + 2 to 4%
N.C. Tied to +1%
Missouri Tied to -1%
Colo. +6 to 7%
N.M. +7 to +11%
N.D. -4 to -1%
Iowa +13 to 15%
Mont. -4 to -3%
Nevada +3 to 4%.
NM looks like a lock for Obama leaving him 6 votes short of 270. So starting with Kerry's 2004 total and adding Iowa AND NEW MEXICO leaves Obama 6 away from a victory achievable with wins in both Montana & ND or any other single state in paragraph 5 (save NV). Virgina or Colorado should do it, failing that Ohio or Florida.
Anticipated Blow-by-Blow
Polls indicate a VERY difficult task for McCain. There has been talk of swinging Pennsylvania red, but McCain is down 8-10%. PA being in play will he shockingly bad news for Obama.
This is not at all likely. If it happens I will suspect fraud.
The first polls close at 4PM (Pacific time); McCain will carry KY, GA & SC easily and will add WV soon after 4:30. Vermont will go blue. As the networks call these (~4:45?) McCain should jump to a 36-3 lead.
At 4PM polls ALSO close in Florida (except the panhandle) plus Ohio & NC. If ANY can be promptly called for Obama it is curtains for McCain.
The networks MAY be reluctant to do this, especially in FL given the fact that some western polling places will not close till 5 PST.
THE key state in this election is probably Virginia. Its 13 electors are enough to make Obama President. His lead is solid there, ~7%. If VA goes Obama, as expected, it should all be over.
Will networks make the call? Exit pollsters are reputedly on a short leash this year so exit poll results may be held back. Once polls close the initial data will make predictions easily in most cases!
Upon 5PM poll closings McCain should pick up 73 more votes from easily called Ala, Miss,TN,TX,OK & KS. This should take him to 109.
Meanwhile Obama can count on 117 votes from these strongly blue states: ME,NH,MA,CN,NJ,DE,MD,DC,PA,IL & MI. He should go to 120.
Missouri will close polling now too. It is expected to be very close, making a delay in calling it either way probable.
Review: between 5 & 6 PM one can expect a 109-120 count; with Florida, Ohio, North Carolina unlikely to be called yet. McCain cannot lose any of these 3 or he is dead. Any of these going for Obama (or Missouri) means he wins - barring entirely unexpected losses in states blue in '04.
About this time Indiana, though tight, might be called. I see it going red making a 120-120 tie as 6PM PST is passed. That is, if the networks aggressively call states.
After 5:30 PST Arkansas and North Dakota should close polling. Arkansas will go red giving McCain 126.
ND is interesting – polling is quite close. McCain needs to win it and chances are he will squeak by - giving him 129.
After 6PM we should see McCain add 30 more to his total thanks to LA,SD,NE,WY & AZ. I see him at 159 as they call these states.
Obama will add 60 to his tally via NY,RI,WI,MN and the key state of New Mexico. His total should be 180.
After 6 PM Colorado enters the mix. McCain is 7% down there. It may be called early - also tantamount to an Obama victory.
Post 7PM Iowa should dole its 7 votes to Obama, giving him 187.
Before polls even close in California at 8PM this election SHOULD be decided as an Obama win.
The networks will likely NOT declare Obama the victor until west coast polls close, however, even if he has it in the bag.
As we near 8PM Utah & Idaho will have added their votes to McCain, Montana will likely give him 3 more taking him to 171.
Alaska WILL push this tally to 174 when its polls close at 9PM.
After 8PM Obama will get 77 more votes from CA,OR, WA & Hawaii pushing him to that 264 talked about at the beginning.
After 8PM the election will hinge on those swing states.
After 8pm Nevada's polls close. Should it go blue - and EVERY other swing state not yet counted go red - a 269-269 tie would result! And given a 4% lead in NV Obama SHOULD go to a 269 vote total one vote shy of the 270 needed.
While it is very unlikely, a possibility exists that the election could be swung by one of the 2 states that DIVIDE their electors. Maine's 4 votes will surely all remain blue and Nebraska's 5 will likely stay red. But if Obama should prevail in Omaha (Warren Buffet endorsed him) its elector could go to him – giving him 270. A curious scenario.
If the election is a tie the House picks the president. This actually happened in 1800 & 1824. If it goes to the House, BTW, a Democratic victory is not certain but is very likely. A topic for another day!
After CA closes our polls it should come down to: Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Colorado!
Could the election drag on all night undecided as did Bush v Gore? NOT LIKELY!
- Virginia and Colorado both give Obama leads of around 7%.
- Ohio has Obama up by around 4%
- He is up 2-4% in Florida
- Missouri & NC are toss-ups but McCain absolutely must win both.
If by 8:15 Obama is not declared a victor despite being (per my analysis) 1 vote shy, Democrats should start getting nervous.
In 2004 the LA Times had Kerry at 320 just days before the election. As it happened Bush prevailed in 5 states leaning quite blue before people went to the polls. Those states were: Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico & Colorado. Could a similar swing of 6 states occur this time? Again, not likely, the 2004 votes were tight in New Mexico, Iowa and Colorado. Evidence for election chicanery in Ohio is overwhelming, however, and strong in Florida and New Mexico. McCain running the table in these key swing states will be harder this time around. But this could be a more interesting election than a lot of people hope.
Weather addendum
In a close election weather can play a role. It is widely believed that the 1960 and 1976 elections could have gone the other way (Nixon and Ford over JFK and Carter respectively) had election day seen inclement weather. Republicans tend to vote regardless of weather conditions. Not so Democrats.
Tuesday forecast calls for wonderful weather in Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota; rain in Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia. The former should help Obama; the latter McCain. Nevada should be clear. Advantage Obama.
My handicap: NC may swing to McCain and Missouri to Obama owing to weather. The rest should not change their outcome because weather usually only makes a percent difference or so.
North Dakota is intriguing though - nice weather COULD push the state blue, which would be decisive.
Tuesday's vote is expected to deliver all states carried by Kerry to Obama. At 270towin.com one can click on the '04 map as a reminder. Kerry got 252 votes – 18 short of the needed 270.
Iowa (7) - which went for Gore in '00 - is a SURE BET for Obama, leaving him just 11 votes short.
ANY combo of the following that totals 11 or more makes Obama victorious:
Ohio (20), Florida (27), Virgina (13), North Carolina (15), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5), North Dakota (3), Montana (3).
The most recent polls in "swing" states have the following differentials (Obama up equals a + number):
Indiana – 2 to -1%
Virginia + 7 to 8%
Florida + 2 to 4%
N.C. Tied to +1%
Missouri Tied to -1%
Colo. +6 to 7%
N.M. +7 to +11%
N.D. -4 to -1%
Iowa +13 to 15%
Mont. -4 to -3%
Nevada +3 to 4%.
NM looks like a lock for Obama leaving him 6 votes short of 270. So starting with Kerry's 2004 total and adding Iowa AND NEW MEXICO leaves Obama 6 away from a victory achievable with wins in both Montana & ND or any other single state in paragraph 5 (save NV). Virgina or Colorado should do it, failing that Ohio or Florida.
Anticipated Blow-by-Blow
Polls indicate a VERY difficult task for McCain. There has been talk of swinging Pennsylvania red, but McCain is down 8-10%. PA being in play will he shockingly bad news for Obama.
This is not at all likely. If it happens I will suspect fraud.
The first polls close at 4PM (Pacific time); McCain will carry KY, GA & SC easily and will add WV soon after 4:30. Vermont will go blue. As the networks call these (~4:45?) McCain should jump to a 36-3 lead.
At 4PM polls ALSO close in Florida (except the panhandle) plus Ohio & NC. If ANY can be promptly called for Obama it is curtains for McCain.
The networks MAY be reluctant to do this, especially in FL given the fact that some western polling places will not close till 5 PST.
THE key state in this election is probably Virginia. Its 13 electors are enough to make Obama President. His lead is solid there, ~7%. If VA goes Obama, as expected, it should all be over.
Will networks make the call? Exit pollsters are reputedly on a short leash this year so exit poll results may be held back. Once polls close the initial data will make predictions easily in most cases!
Upon 5PM poll closings McCain should pick up 73 more votes from easily called Ala, Miss,TN,TX,OK & KS. This should take him to 109.
Meanwhile Obama can count on 117 votes from these strongly blue states: ME,NH,MA,CN,NJ,DE,MD,DC,PA,IL & MI. He should go to 120.
Missouri will close polling now too. It is expected to be very close, making a delay in calling it either way probable.
Review: between 5 & 6 PM one can expect a 109-120 count; with Florida, Ohio, North Carolina unlikely to be called yet. McCain cannot lose any of these 3 or he is dead. Any of these going for Obama (or Missouri) means he wins - barring entirely unexpected losses in states blue in '04.
About this time Indiana, though tight, might be called. I see it going red making a 120-120 tie as 6PM PST is passed. That is, if the networks aggressively call states.
After 5:30 PST Arkansas and North Dakota should close polling. Arkansas will go red giving McCain 126.
ND is interesting – polling is quite close. McCain needs to win it and chances are he will squeak by - giving him 129.
After 6PM we should see McCain add 30 more to his total thanks to LA,SD,NE,WY & AZ. I see him at 159 as they call these states.
Obama will add 60 to his tally via NY,RI,WI,MN and the key state of New Mexico. His total should be 180.
After 6 PM Colorado enters the mix. McCain is 7% down there. It may be called early - also tantamount to an Obama victory.
Post 7PM Iowa should dole its 7 votes to Obama, giving him 187.
Before polls even close in California at 8PM this election SHOULD be decided as an Obama win.
The networks will likely NOT declare Obama the victor until west coast polls close, however, even if he has it in the bag.
As we near 8PM Utah & Idaho will have added their votes to McCain, Montana will likely give him 3 more taking him to 171.
Alaska WILL push this tally to 174 when its polls close at 9PM.
After 8PM Obama will get 77 more votes from CA,OR, WA & Hawaii pushing him to that 264 talked about at the beginning.
After 8PM the election will hinge on those swing states.
After 8pm Nevada's polls close. Should it go blue - and EVERY other swing state not yet counted go red - a 269-269 tie would result! And given a 4% lead in NV Obama SHOULD go to a 269 vote total one vote shy of the 270 needed.
While it is very unlikely, a possibility exists that the election could be swung by one of the 2 states that DIVIDE their electors. Maine's 4 votes will surely all remain blue and Nebraska's 5 will likely stay red. But if Obama should prevail in Omaha (Warren Buffet endorsed him) its elector could go to him – giving him 270. A curious scenario.
If the election is a tie the House picks the president. This actually happened in 1800 & 1824. If it goes to the House, BTW, a Democratic victory is not certain but is very likely. A topic for another day!
After CA closes our polls it should come down to: Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Colorado!
Could the election drag on all night undecided as did Bush v Gore? NOT LIKELY!
- Virginia and Colorado both give Obama leads of around 7%.
- Ohio has Obama up by around 4%
- He is up 2-4% in Florida
- Missouri & NC are toss-ups but McCain absolutely must win both.
If by 8:15 Obama is not declared a victor despite being (per my analysis) 1 vote shy, Democrats should start getting nervous.
In 2004 the LA Times had Kerry at 320 just days before the election. As it happened Bush prevailed in 5 states leaning quite blue before people went to the polls. Those states were: Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico & Colorado. Could a similar swing of 6 states occur this time? Again, not likely, the 2004 votes were tight in New Mexico, Iowa and Colorado. Evidence for election chicanery in Ohio is overwhelming, however, and strong in Florida and New Mexico. McCain running the table in these key swing states will be harder this time around. But this could be a more interesting election than a lot of people hope.
Weather addendum
In a close election weather can play a role. It is widely believed that the 1960 and 1976 elections could have gone the other way (Nixon and Ford over JFK and Carter respectively) had election day seen inclement weather. Republicans tend to vote regardless of weather conditions. Not so Democrats.
Tuesday forecast calls for wonderful weather in Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota; rain in Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia. The former should help Obama; the latter McCain. Nevada should be clear. Advantage Obama.
My handicap: NC may swing to McCain and Missouri to Obama owing to weather. The rest should not change their outcome because weather usually only makes a percent difference or so.
North Dakota is intriguing though - nice weather COULD push the state blue, which would be decisive.
Monday, October 27, 2008
PROMISE TO VOTE, DOWNLOAD FREE WILCO SONG (LIVE DYLAN COVER)
The band Wilco wants you to get out and vote. If you go to their website and promise to do so, you can download a FREE Wilco song -- a live cover of Bob Dylan's classic "I Shall Be Released". I guess you can say it's notes for votes.
W I L C O
All we ask is you check the "I pledge to vote in the 2008 Election" button below ... www.wilcoworld.net/vote
W I L C O
All we ask is you check the "I pledge to vote in the 2008 Election" button below ... www.wilcoworld.net/vote
Sunday, October 26, 2008
NOV 4: EXERCISE YOUR FREEDOM TO VOTE, THEN GET FREE ICE CREAM: Free Ben & Jerry's Scoop for Voters 5-8PM (then go Exercise!)
Ben & Jerry's wants to thank you for voting by giving you a free scoop of ice cream! Come to participating B&J shops on November 4, 2008 from 5-8pm, show them you voted and you'll get a free orb of yummy goodness. Show your "I Voted"sticker, a photo of you in front of your polling station, do the "I Voted dance" or just tell them you voted.
(from slickdeals.net)
Then make sure to go exercise afterwards, to burn off all those extra calories!
Monday, October 20, 2008
OCT 20: LAST DAY TO REGISTER TO VOTE IN CALIFORNIA! HERE IS USEFUL INFO TO HELP YOU
Many voting questions can be answered here: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_vr.htm
The following are some highlights from the above webpage:
Frequently Asked Questions
This webpage contains information about registering to vote in California. If you have a question that you do not see answered here, please visit our Frequently Asked Questions page.
Are You Already Registered to Vote?
To find out if you are currently registered to vote, contact your county elections office. If you are not registered to vote, you can ask your county elections office how to register or you can follow the simple steps [on the page we linked to above].
How You Can Register to Vote
Fill Out A Voter Registration Form Now
Click here (ENGLISH/ESPAÑOL) to download and complete the voter registration form on your computer. When you fill in your address, the address for your county elections office will automatically be added. Then simply print the form, sign it, and mail it directly to your county elections office.
Pick Up A Voter Registration Form
You can pick up a voter registration form at your county elections office, library, or U.S. Post Office. It is important that your voter registration form be filled out completely and be postmarked or hand-delivered to your county elections office at least 15 days before the election.
When to Re-Register to Vote
You will need to re-register to vote when:
You move to a new permanent residence
You change your name
You change your political party choice.
Additional Assistance
For additional assistance with voter registration, please contact the Secretary of State's office at the following toll-free number: (800) 345-VOTE.
The following are some highlights from the above webpage:
Frequently Asked Questions
This webpage contains information about registering to vote in California. If you have a question that you do not see answered here, please visit our Frequently Asked Questions page.
Are You Already Registered to Vote?
To find out if you are currently registered to vote, contact your county elections office. If you are not registered to vote, you can ask your county elections office how to register or you can follow the simple steps [on the page we linked to above].
How You Can Register to Vote
Fill Out A Voter Registration Form Now
Click here (ENGLISH/ESPAÑOL) to download and complete the voter registration form on your computer. When you fill in your address, the address for your county elections office will automatically be added. Then simply print the form, sign it, and mail it directly to your county elections office.
Pick Up A Voter Registration Form
You can pick up a voter registration form at your county elections office, library, or U.S. Post Office. It is important that your voter registration form be filled out completely and be postmarked or hand-delivered to your county elections office at least 15 days before the election.
October 20 is the postmark deadline for mailed registration forms.
When to Re-Register to Vote
You will need to re-register to vote when:
You move to a new permanent residence
You change your name
You change your political party choice.
Additional Assistance
For additional assistance with voter registration, please contact the Secretary of State's office at the following toll-free number: (800) 345-VOTE.
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